All was going well for Juventus this season up until a few days ago. The club were second in Serie A and were on the brink of making a European final under Massimiliano Allegri. However, everything began to take a turn for the worse following the Italian giants' disappointing UEFA Europa League elimination, with the Old Lady crashing out in the semifinals against Sevilla after losing in extra time.
On Monday, it was then announced that the Old Lady will suffer a 10-point deduction for "financial irregularities" and "false accounting" after their initial 15-point deduction was suspended. While that is a five-point decrease, Allegri's men still went from second in the league to seventh in the table and are now five points adrift of the last UEFA Champions League spot, held by fourth-placed AC Milan, with only two games left this season.
But what does this have to do with Arsenal? Why are the Bianconeri's woes of any concern to the North London giants? The reason is simple: due to UEFA coefficient, Juventus' absence from Europe's most prestigious club competition will come as a huge boost to the Gunners when it comes to the draw.
Arteta's failure to secure the Premier League title meant that Saka and Co. appeared destined for Pot 3. When doing the group-stage draw, UEFA split the participants into four pots, with the winners of Europe's top competitions – the big five leagues, the Champions League, and Europa League – entering pot 1.
Failure to qualify for Pot 1 means that you're likelier to get a Barcelona or a Napoli in the group stage. After Pot 1, coefficient comes into play and given Arsenal's long absence from the competition, they were destined to miss out on Pot 2 and land in Pot 3, meaning a Group of Death was a possibility for the Gunners.
However, Juventus' absence from the competition could bump the North London giants up into Pot 2. It should be noted that Arsenal aren't out of the woods just yet. Juventus can still qualify for the Champions League, although it is unlikely to occur. Additionally, if any of Roma, Villarreal, and/or Ajax secure Champions League qualification through their domestic leagues, then Saka and Co. would drop back down to Pot 3.
Juventus handed 10 points deduction!
— UEFA Rankings (@UefaRankings) May 22, 2023
- Juventus out of CL positions
- AC Milan enter CL in Pot 3
- Arsenal move up to Pot 2
- Lazio secure group stage place pic.twitter.com/h16xsFXHpQ
Despite all of this, Arsenal's fate in Europe next season will largely depend on two things: their draw and their summer transfer business. The Gunners could get a tough or easy group regardless of their pot but will need to strengthen their squad if they are to go far in both Europe and the Premier League, hence their interest in Declan Rice, Moises Caicedo, Ilkay Gundogan, and Mason Mount.
